Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. YANKEES +102 over Toronto

 BEST LINES: Pinnacle +102 Bet365 -110 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +102

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. What a difference a few months make. The Blue Jays were Crush City North last summer and well into the fall but this year they are Meek City and manager John Gibbons is panicking in a big way. The Blue Jays took three of four in Minnesota last weekend but all of their runs come via the home run with the exception of two separate innings. While the Twins are getting 6 to 10 runs scored on them almost every night, the Jays scored three times in three of the four games. In the opener here last night, Toronto did not score. With runners in scoring position, the Jays are hitting a league low .209. Overall, they’re batting .233. Now it’s turning into Bizzaro World, as Gibbons has Jose Bautista leading off and Michael Sanders batting cleanup. That’s like having Sidney Crosby in goal and Matt Murray centering Evgeni Malkin. Bautista hits .232 and his greatest asset is driving in runs. Saunders is a post-hype bat who has produced nice value early in 2016 (.314 BA, 8 HR, 15 RBI in 153 AB). However, both his batting average and power stats are flukes. An inflated 44% hit rate has driven his BA; his .269 xBA is a better barometer to use and his 163 PX (power index) is sobered by a marginal 86 xPX. Saunders is a bottom of the order guy that is hitting fourth. Yes indeed, Gibbons is on tilt.

Marco Estrada is getting a lot more strikeouts these days (50 in 52 innings), which is way above his career marks over the past eight seasons prior to this one. With 88 MPH heat, what gives? Estrada has been notable in several respects. An elite spin rate and perceived rise on his four-seam fastball is fooling hitters. The speed differential between his heater and his change is the most extreme among qualified pitchers. His BABIP is well below average and he’s also throwing a very good changeup. That’s nice but we’re still not buyers. Major League hitters make adjustments and there is enough film out now on Estrada for these hitters to adjust too. He is still often behind in the count and his low hit rate (24%) and high strand rate (79%) is still doing the heavy lifting. According to Pitch f/x, Estrada has had more fly-balls within two feet of the warning track than any starter in the game. A minor adjustment by hitters and those shots will be leaving the park with regularity. Estrada’s charmed life has been going on for too long and it’s going to blow up on him soon. With declining control and extreme fly-ball tilt in a hitter-friendly yard, paying for Estrada to continue to dominate would be a big mistake.

Does it matter who is going for the Yanks? We think not. The Jays have made Phil Hughes, Pat Dean, Ross Stripling, Clay Buchholz and many others look like an ace this year and the fact that they’re favored on the road against the Yanks and perhaps the best bullpen in the game is incorrect. 

Note: Games may be added or subtracted by 6:00 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

N.Y. YANKEES +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110