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Posted at 2:20 PM EST. 

8:15 PM EST. On the surface, there was more mediocrity from Jeremey Hellickson last season but there are four reasons to speculate on post-hype potential: 1) surging strikeout rate spiked in second half; 2) good swing and miss % foretells more K’s; 3) great skills in two separate months; 4) halted ominous OPS v righties trend. Hellickson was lit up in his third and fourth starts of the season but responded with a two-hit, seven-inning gem in his latest at Washington. Hellickson is hit and miss but there's still a lot to like in his early skills (28/6 K/BB in 26 IP) and he has a strong 11.7% swing and miss rate too. That said, this one is more a fade against Adam Wainwright, thus the five-inning wager.

The Phillies dropped their first four games of the year but they’ve won 15 of 21 games since including six in a row and nine of 10. They also just swept the Indians and defeated Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar in the process. The Indians are not the Cardinals but Adam Wainwright is not Kluber or Salazar. Wainwright earned a win against Arizona on April 27, but he gave up four earned runs in 5.2 innings. Wainwright will try to recover his 7.1 K’s/9 from last year but he owns a 4.6 K’s/9 and a 5.26 xERA in 28 innings this season. Teams are smashing Wainwright's sinker with a 1.721 OPS in 93 pitches in 2016 and his line-drive rate of 35.7% is the 7th worst in the majors among all starters. Wainwright’s infield fly percentage of 3% is also one of the worst marks in the league. In fact, everything is trending the wrong way for Wainwright and his sub-indicators say he’s not going to turn things around anytime soon. With a four-seam fastball that is struggling to break 90 mph and a curveball that is no longer a punch-out pitch (8% swing and miss rate), Wainwright offers very little and cannot be favored in this range against a team as hot and confident as the Phillies are right now. 

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