Atlanta @ PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta-104 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST 5-inning LINES: Pinnacle -104 SportsInteraction -105  Bet365 -105 Betfair -112

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

The Braves loss to the Phillies yesterday was a frustrating one but it is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here against David Buchanan. Buchanan had thrown 25 brutal innings this year over five starts, which led to his demotion back to Lehigh Valley. He has allowed 14 hits in 11.1 innings in his two starts this month with the last one coming 10 days ago against the Rays. Overall, Buchanan has been tagged for 46 hits and 28 runs in 36 innings. His oppBA is .319. To make matters worse, he can’t throw strikes. Buchanan has a BB/K split of 18/19 to go along with a WHIP of 1.78 and an ERA of 7.00. In his six starts at Triple-AAA Lehigh Valley between his two stints in the majors this year, Buchanan allowed 39 hits in 31 innings while whiffing a mere 17 batters. There’s a reason he went 231st in the 2010 draft. David Buchanan is as bad a starter as you’ll ever see at this level because nothing good in his profile sticks out. He doesn’t strike out guys, he doesn’t throw hard, he doesn’t fool hitter’s with off-speed stuff, he doesn’t induce groundballs at a high level and he doesn’t keep guys off the bases.

Williams Perez was 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA before he went on the DL with a bruised foot. He made eight starts and worked out of the pen twice before the injury in late June. Overall, Perez has thrown 50 innings while allowing just 45 hits and striking out 38. He has an outstanding 52%/20%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Unlike Buchanan, Perez posted outstanding numbers at Triple-A in his first few starts and rehab assignment combined with just eight runs allowed in 38 frames (1.16 ERA) to go along with a BB/K split of 10/36. These two starters have taken similar paths this year, as they were both up and down for similar periods. The difference is Perez was injured while Buchanan was demoted. Perez has earned his spot in the rotation while the pitching desperate Phillies are looking for anyone that can eat innings. Perez’s win expectation is much higher than Buchanan’s so in a virtual pick-em game we must play the value. 

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Our Pick

Atlanta -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110