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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

On the heels of a strong 2015 start in the minors, Eduardo Rodriguez made his major league debut in a spot start on May 28. He ranked #9 to #11 on the top prospects lists for several publications and projects as a solid #2 starter at maturity. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the Baltimore Orioles in 2010, Rodriguez was traded for Andrew Miller July 31, 2014. He’s demonstrated an ability to miss bats, command pitches, and keep the ball on the ground at each stop of his four-plus-year rise through the two systems. Rodriguez boasts three pitches that project to be above-average. His best offering is a plus change-up and his fastball dials up to 95 mph. There is excellent movement on all three pitches, including his low-80s mph slider, and Rodriguez does a nice job of repeating his mechanics and delivery. As the slider continues to develop, Rodriguez has a lot of potential in the coming seasons. Rodriguez has made just six starts so far and you won’t find a starter with a more difficult stretch of games to open up his career against. Thus far, Rodriguez has faced Baltimore twice. He’s also faced the Rangers in Texas, the Royals in Kansas City and the Blue Jays back at Fenway when Toronto was killing it. That covers five of his starts. His one “break” was against the Twins and all he did in that start was throw a seven-inning, two hitter. He now gets the Blue Jays at a time when they’re beginning to labor at the dish. Toronto has scored just four runs at home over their past three games.

As much as we like Rodriguez, this one is more about fading Marco Estrada, whose stock is soaring right now after throwing back-to-back gems and winning five straight overall. Over his last two starts, Estrada has allowed just three hits in 15.2 innings and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in his last start. In fact, he actually toyed with back-to-back no hitters. He finished up his last game going 8.2 shutout innings, while striking out 10 batters and not walking anyone. He threw 129 pitches. He now becomes a serious sell-high candidate because he’s just not that good and because those past two starts had to have taken a toll.

Toronto's youth movement on the mound hasn't quite turned out as planned, as Aaron Sanchez has struggled with his control and fellow youngster Daniel Norris landed in Triple-A earlier back in May. Marco Estrada finds himself the beneficiary of their struggles after not making the rotation out of spring training. Furthermore, Estrada’s negatives outweigh his gains. On the plus side, Estrada can be counted on for K’s, as his he's lifted his swinging strike rate to 11%, although some of that might be attributed to his time in the 'pen. After years of average-but-not-terrible control, it has spiked this season, backed by a drop in first-pitch strike rate, which is 58%. The result is his lowest command since he entered the big leagues. Estrada's gopheritis (giving up HR’s) is well-documented, and it’s been more of the same so far. He's made minor gains by allowing fewer fly-balls, but nothing to suggest a drastic change in approach, as his groundball/fly-ball split is 38%/45%. The move to Toronto’s starting rotation may end up hurting Estrada in the long haul, as AL East ballparks are no place for a fly-ball pitcher to thrive. So far, Estrada has hung in there while putting up some impressive surface numbers but all of his metrics suggests it’s not going to last much longer. Estrada is a great target to attack because his stock is so high and again, he’s just not that good.    

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