Boston @ TEXAS
Boston -102 over TEXAS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -102 SportsInteraction -105 Betfair -110 Bet365 -110  

Posted at 10:30 PM EST. 

Nick Martinez is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA through nine starts this season. The combination of a 27% hit rate and 86% strand rate have made him one of the luckier pitchers in the league, exhibited by his 4.47 xERA. Only one of his four home starts this season has resulted in a quality start and in his career, he owns a 4.33 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 81 innings at home. In 55 innings, Martinez has a BB/K split of 17/30. Given his less-than-pedestrian skills, it’s quite remarkable that Martinez has a better ERA than some of the best pitchers in the game. There is simply no possible way for Martinez’s luck to hold up much longer. When favored, Martinez must be faded because a series of blowups is almost 100% guaranteed. It may not happen here but it will happen and should we lose this game it’s no big deal because we’ll get it back with interest when Martinez is favored again at some point. That said, we don’t expect to lose it.

On the heels of a strong 2015 start, the 6'2", 210-pound Eduardo Rodriguez will make his major league debut in here. He ranked #9 on Baseball America’s top prospect list and projects as a solid #2 or #3 starter at maturity. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the Baltimore Orioles in 2010, Rodriguez was traded for Andrew Miller July 31, 2014. He’s demonstrated an ability to miss bats, command pitches, and keep the ball on the ground at each stop of his four-plus-year rise through the two systems. Rodriguez boasts three pitches that project to be above-average. His best offering is a plus change-up and his fastball dials up to 95 mph. There is excellent movement on all three pitches, including his low-80s mph slider, and Rodriguez does a nice job of repeating his mechanics and delivery. At Pawtucket this season in 48.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 8.2 K’s/9, a .256 oppBA and he’s allowed just 2 home runs. We’re very willing to back this kid in this spot. Rodriguez has the arsenal to thrive and pitch a very good game here but even if he fails, the Red Sox should have a legit shot of winning because of their legit shot to put up a crooked number against Martinez.  

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Our Pick

Boston -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Toronto +109 over Tampa Bay
Milwaukee -101 over N.Y. Mets
N.Y. Yankees +105 over Houston
Boston +128 over Seattle
San Francisco +133 over San Diego