Milwaukee @ PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee +114 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +111 SportsInteraction +105 Bet365 +105 Betfair N/A 

Posted at 12:15 PM EST and updated at 5:00 PM EST. 

The Brewers are 2-7 and in those nine games they have scored a measly 23 runs. The Pirates, despite their 3-6 record, are considered a threat to win the NL Central. Jeff Locke has started 51 games for the Pirates over the past two years and has posted a 3.75 ERA over that span while losing just 13 of those 51 starts. Jimmy Nelson went 2-9 last season for the Crew and posted an ERA of 4.93. The Brewers also lost Carlos Gomez to a pulled hamstring on Wednesday and were shutout by the Cardinals yesterday. What most people are going to see and act upon is the Pirates opening up as a cheap price at home in the opener of this series. One cannot fault anyone for spotting the cheap price on the Pirates. However, when we see something that looks a tad too good to be true, it’s worth further investigation.

First, Jeff Locke’s skills are about as boring as a quilt festival. A March oblique injury pinged him early last season and there was nothing but mediocrity afterwards. Locke ended up with a 7-6 record to go along with a 3.91 ERA. His quality start improved as his groundball % solidified but Locke’s flaky control and sub-par strikeout rate give little hope of future improvement. Locke whiffed just 89 batters in 131 innings last year and in his first start this year, against these same Brewers no less, he went six full but only whiffed two hitters. Locke’s swing and miss rate in that first start was 4%. He only gave up two runs but it was all luck, aided by a 75% strand rate. Locke’s second-half ERA was over 5.00 last year compared with a 2.06 in the first half, leading to the conclusion his early success was a fluke. Actually, whatever success he’s had at this level can mostly be attributed to fluke because Locke is just a below average pitcher, whose ERA will very likely be well over 4.00 at the end of the year. The oddsmakers are very aware that Locke is average and that’s one of the reasons the Pirates are cheap today. The other reason is Jimmy Nelson.

We’ve often mentioned how misleading surface stats can be and Nelson is a prime example of that. Nelson’s 4.93 ERA and 2-9 record from last year looks ugly on paper but there are four reasons for optimism. His skills growth; his refined control, which is supported by his first pitch strike rate; swing and miss rate hints more Ks could be on the way; strong groundball %. Nelson needs to translate his minor league success to The Show and make some strides vLHB, but his future looks more than bright. In his first start this year, Nelson’s under the hood numbers were off the charts. He induced 73% groundballs, he had an elite 17% swing and miss rate and he threw 63% of his first pitch for strikes. His line-drive rate in that start was 0%. In other words, not a single ball was hit hard of him. We’re not going to put much weight on one start but in Nelson’s case, all the signs are there for his dominance to continue. Put Nelson on your radar immediately and invest. 

UPDATE: A late scratch of Jeff Locke in favor of Vance Worley does nothing to change our mind regarding a play on the Crew. Worley went 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 111 innings for the Pirates last year. He was called up in mid-June and ran off 21 innings of sub-2.00 ERA. It wasn't real. While he does a great job of getting ahead of hitters, hence, his superb control, a poor swing and miss rate and mediocre K-rate left his fate in the hands of the Pirates defense. Locke had been chosen over Worley for the fifth starter's job, but neither distinguished themselves in the spring training battle, as Worley allowed 11 ER (three HR) in 21 IP and Locke was charged with 13 ER in 18.2 IP. Worley’s skills are slightly better than Locke’s but it’s by the slimmest of margins and doesn’t influence us in the least to back off.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110