BEST LINES: Pinnacle o4 -109 Bet365 o4½ +100 SportsInteraction N/A Betfair N/A 

Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

We are just going to reiterate what we said in our Houston/Anaheim analysis. We're looking to cash in against Jared Weaver and playing the Astros team total to go over 4 is just another way of attacking it. 

Regular readers know that we’ve been fading Weaver for two years plus and have been preaching how bad he is over that time but he kept on winning games. One of these days we are going to post all the hate mail we’ve received over the past two years telling us how wrong we are about Weaver. Terms like “clueless, idiotic, we work for the books, stubbornly stupid and a whole bunch of F-Bombs have been thrown our way in regards to us fading Weaver. Being as stubborn as we are, we cannot ignore what the numbers tell us and they are now telling us things are worse than ever for this stiff. Weaver has been hit hard in his first two starts of 2015. Early results have seen his fastball velocity down to 83 MPH. His combined groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 32%/21%/47% over the past two years is one of the worst batted balls profile in the majors. In his two starts this year, Weaver’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is 30%/24%/46%. That’s less groundballs and more line-drives and although it’s only two starts, it’s still hugely troublesome. In 10 innings over two starts, Weaver has surrendered 15 hits, 10 runs, walked four and struck out six. It should also be noted that one of those starts was at Safeco. Jared Weaver has been and still is one of the worst starters in baseball that has been vastly outpitching his skills for years. It’s finally catching up to him and we’re on the doorstep ready to get paid. 

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