Texas @ OAKLAND
Texas +188 over OAKLAND

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +188

Posted at 9:15 AM EST.

Since August 10th, the A’s have 10 wins in 34 games. That is the worst record in the majors over that span and their .216 BA over that same span is also the worst mark in the majors. That’s almost 25% of the season and yet the Athletics are still being priced like an elite team. Yeah, this is Texas but the Rangers have won five straight, they are having fun for the first time all season and they are playing with house money right now against these contenders. Oakland GM Billy Beane went all-in when he included top prospect Addison Russell in the trade for Jeff Samardzija and Samardzija has done well in his first exposure to the AL. However, Samardzija appears to be losing steam after a heavy workload to this point, not to mention the stressful innings he’s pitched under and the heavy workload he endured last year. In fact, Samardzija had a notable fade in September of last year also with a 5.58 ERA over his final five starts. We’re seeing something similar this year. The A’s have lost five of Samardzija’s last six starts. Over that span, he has allowed four runs or more three times and that includes getting tagged for seven runs by the Mets. That said, Samardzija is very capable of dominating and perhaps he throws a gem here. If that’s the case, so be it but we’re not in the business of trying to predict how a pitcher or team will perform from game to game. We’re in the business of finding value and right now the A’s aren't hitting and Samardzija is showing signs of another September fade. Both those factors make the A’s a huge risk at this price.

Put Derek Holland on your radar immediately. This guy is fresh and raring to go. Holland has looked really good in his three starts since coming off the disabled list after January knee surgery. In 21 innings over those three starts, Holland has 17 K’s and zero walks. In his last start Holland posted a 50% groundball rate and 14% line-drive rate. That’s pretty amazing for a pitcher that is seven months behind the rest of the field. Holland figures to be even better and stronger with each passing start. Holland will be a premium post-injury speculation in 2015 but we’re thrilled to take back a tag like this with him in this spot in 2014. Overlay. 



Our Pick

Texas +188 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.76)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110