Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
CHICAGO +106 over Milwaukee

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +106

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

The Brewers cannot be favored on the road right now. Milwaukee has dropped six in a row on the road and has been outscored 42-13 over that span. What’s happening to the Brewers (choking) is not unique. They are in the midst of a heated pennant race for the first time in a long time and it’s a role they are not accustomed to. We saw a similar reaction by the Pirates a couple of years ago and we're seeing similar reactions from K.C. and Seattle this year. The Crew will now send out veteran Yovani Gallardo to try and snap this untimely funk. We don’t like his chances. After being a model of consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 27 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.26 ERA so it would appear on the surface that he’s returned to his old ways? Truth is, he has not. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. His fading swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound, either. In his last start, Gallardo walked three and struck out none. He has a BB/K split over his last 30 innings of 11/17. His xERA doesn't believe in the ERA rebound. Under the surface, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00+ ERA" written all over it. He’s been greatly aided by an 77% strand rate and that strand % is even higher over his last six starts at 81%. Gallardo is a struggling pitcher that has been living off extreme good fortune over the last two months but with the roof caving in on the Brewers, his luck is likely going to take a turn for the worse. Avoid.

Jake Arietta is coming off a terrible performance where he allowed six earned runs in just four innings in a disaster start versus the Reds. He will look to rebound at home against the Brewers, who he faced on August 11 and allowed just five hits and two earned runs in 7.1 innings. Arietta’s August results look ugly, as he was 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in five starts. An unlucky 57% strand rate really hurt him while the rest of his skills maintained at a high level (3.04 xERA, 50% groundball %, 8.6K’s/9, 3.6 BB. His home form has been tremendous, where he has a skills supported 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 58 innings. Overall, Arietta has 135 K’s in 128 innings, a 50% groundball rate and a 1.05 WHIP. The Cubbies continue to play well and have now won 10 of their past 15 games. Milwaukee is wrongly being billed as the chalk here and we’re all over it. 

 



Our Pick

CHICAGO +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110