BEST LINE: Bet365 +130

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

The A’s snapped an ugly losing streak yesterday with a 6-1 victory in the opener of this series. Newcomer Adam Dunn provided a spark with a jack in his first AB to spark the A’s to a five-run first inning. That’s a nice story, it really is but the addition of Dunn was a desperation move by Billy Beane to ignite his offense. Dunn will DH primarily against righties, which unfortunately means he’s likely on the bench to start this one against lefty James Paxton. Mr. Three True Outcomes (walk, strikeout or HR) is nothing more than a rally killer and he’s batting cleanup. Last September, Dunn hit .159 in a hitter’s park. At O.co Coliseum, expect something closer to .059. If and when he gets in tonight, he’s more of a hindrance than a help. Take away the five runs that the A’s scored in the 1st inning last night and they have scored just two runs over their last 36 innings. Now this struggling lineup will have to face a pitcher that has some of the nastiest stuff you will ever see. Paxton's health issues have been well documented, as have his outstanding skills (career 1.71 ERA in 63.1 MLB innings). Paxton has a career BAA of .202 after allowing just 47 hits in those 63 innings. In fact, there's nothing new to add since the last few times we've written about Paxton. If he's healthy, he's likely to be brilliant and right now he says he feels great. 

By contrast, Sonny Gray hasn’t been so great lately. You always have to be cautious with pitchers that are not accustomed to throwing this many innings. In his two years above A-ball in the minors, Gray threw just 48 innings in 2011 and 152 in 2012. Last year, he threw just 64 innings at this level. This season, Gray is already up to 178 innings and all the signs of fatigue are present. Over his last 32 innings, his walks are up (13) and his K rate is down (21). The A’s have lost three of the past four games that Gray has started and over that span he has posted an ERA of 5.06 to go along with an alarming 1.53 WHIP. Gray could rebound, as he has the skills but in the end, we see a fresh pitcher with brilliant stuff against a tiring one that is struggling. We also get to fade a team that is reeling and seeing golf balls at the dish. Seattle is struggling too right now but they still offer up tremendous value at this price with Paxton going.