BEST 5-INNING LINE: Pinnacle -½ +103

Ho, hum. Last season was just another Just another 200-IP, outstanding skills year for Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner’s strikeout rate continues to improve, though perhaps at the expense of a bit of control. Exciting dominant start/disaster start trend shouts consistency. If you’re concerned about his 1.79 WHIP that he has posted after his four starts, don’t be. An early look at his skills confirms that there is no reason to worry, as Bumgarner has struck out 26 batters in 21 innings (11K/9) 11.0 with a 45% groundball rate and a solid xERA of 3.51. A crazy and extremely unlucky 46% hit rate has caused Bumgarner’s WHIP struggles.

Yesterday we mentioned that Ryan Vogelsong isn’t likely to get past three innings and right on cue, he was knocked out in the second inning. Well, a similar fate is likely awaiting southpaw Franklin Morales. First, the Giants have scored the most runs in the majors this season (37) against lefties. Morales’ struggles pitching at Coors Field is surely not unique, as the ballpark tendencies show it is the most hitter friendly in the league by far (+36% runs scored). In his second stint with the Rockies, Morales' only start at home this season resulted in a pure disaster against the White Sox in a game the Rockies lost 15-3. His other two starts this season occurred in Miami and in San Diego and he was blasted in Miami. His lone quality start occurred in San Diego but that park could make Bob Barker look good. In his career versus the Giants, he is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA (6.22 xERA) and 1.62 WHIP in 24.2 IP. Wagering against the Rockies at home is risky but this pitching matchup hugely favors the visitor and it’s for that reason we’ll step in for the first five innings only because Bumgarner's chances for success are far greater than his mound opponent.