BEST LINE: Pinnacle +107

2:20 PM EST. Jeff Samardzija has thrown close to 400 innings over the past two years and the heavy workload may be taking a toll. After a successful transition from the bullpen to the rotation in 2012, Samardzija was a profit potential target entering 2013. He delivered in the first half with a 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP but then tanked down the stretch with 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after July. He’s pitched well in three starts this year but there are some signs of danger. A fortunate trifecta of a 27% hit rate, 90% strand rate and 6% hr/f has aided Samardzija in posting a 1.29 ERA through three starts. His swinging strike rate of just 7% is way below his rate over the previous two years. We also see a 30% line-drive rate over his first three starts and these are all warning signs that Samardzija is not at the top of his game despite the surface stats. Also note that despite the very good year in 2013, Samardzija went 3-5 at Wrigley in 17 games started with a 4.76 ERA and a .274 BAA. With one loss at Wrigley already this year, Samardzija now has three wins in his last 18 starts at home.

Alfredo Simon has posted back to back pure quality starts as the replacement for Mat Latos in the Reds rotation. Over 15 innings, Simon has walked just two batters while whiffing 10. Pitching out of the pen the past two seasons, Simon has posted two straight years of sub-3 ERA with an xERA of 3.75. We’re not expecting miracles out of Simon but he’s into his third straight year of solid skills that include a 51% groundball rate with outstanding control. He’ll now face a Cubbies team that is batting a combined .230, which is the second worst make in the NL.