Anaheim @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1 +133 over Anaheim

BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1 +133

Jered Weaver is 0-2 in three starts with a 5.79 ERA. We have been warning you about his declining skills and very average stuff for two years but somehow Weaver was able to outpitch his talents. Weaver’s lack of skill is finally catching up to him and we’re not done pouncing on these opportunities. In his three starts, Weaver has faced the Mets, Astros and Mariners. Houston has a team batting average of .188, the worst in the majors. The Mets team batting average is a NL worst .229 and the Mariner team BA is also .230, which is the fifth worst in the majors. Weaver was tagged for 12 runs (four runs or more in each game) in 18.2 frames against that weak hitting trio and now takes a huge step up in class when facing the Tigers at Comerica. Last season Weaver once again bested xERA by wide margin, as hit% and hr/f continued to cooperate. His fastball velocity is in its fourth straight year of decline and his other skills remain pedestrian. Weaver is a prime fade target because his ability to outpitch his skills has come to an end. Additionally, the Angels bullpen is a complete disaster, forcing the worst manager in the game to leave pitchers in there longer than they should be.   

Over the Tigers last 105 home games, 70% of their wins have been by 2 runs or more. Expect a little extra motivation here from the Tigers in support of Drew Smyly, who makes his first start of the season after pitching out of the pen last year. Smyly is a natural starter and it looks like good things are ahead for the young lefty. He was strong in 2013 with outstanding skills across the board. He was more than a lefty-killer too. He had a great command vs. both LH and RH bats. He has two plus pitches - a cutter and slider. His cutter produced a 31% K rate and 15% swinging strike rate. Smyly's slider was even better. It resulted in a 44% K% and 19% swinging strike rate. Detroit was so rich in starting pitching that they moved Smyly to the bullpen in 2013 to get out tough lefties, and few were better in that role. He was nearly as unhittable against RH bats with 10.2 k’s per nine to go along with a 46% groundball rate. With Smyly’s skills and experience in pressure situations and learning from some of the best in the game, expect a pretty smooth transition to the rotation. 



Our Pick

DETROIT -1 +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110