Posted at 8:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -141 BET365 -145 Sportsinteraction -145 888Sport -138

Marta Kostyuk over Laura Siegemund

Best Odds: -138 at 888Sport

8:45 AM EST. Laura Siegemund is getting a ton of respect from sportsbooks and quite frankly we don't think it's warranted. She'll face a berserker on Tuesday morning, which is a big part of why we think this line is way off, but it's also about Laura. The 84th ranked singles player is now 36-years old and it's becoming abundantly clear that solo-tennis isn't her best form any longer. It never really was. Known more for her doubles' success, including a world ranking as high as #4, Siegemund hasn't done very much in singles action over the last few seasons. She competed hard at a few majors last year, but in most minor tourneys she chose to simply skip competing in the singles bracket. In 2024, any attempts of solo success have quickly dissipated once she met better opponents. At the Miami Open, Jelena Ostapenko booted her in two straight sets. At Indiana Wells she didn't make it past the first qualifier; same goes for Dubai. At the Australian Open she finally got a nice win against Ekaterina Alexandrova, a top-25 player, before spiraling against Storm Hunter in the second round. 

There's very minimal evidence to suggest that Siegemund can remain competitive against an elite singles player, let alone a woman who's playing the best tennis of her young life. Marta Kostyuk's ascent has been steady since turning pro in 2018, but she really showed new levels in 2023. Motivated by the atrocities caused by Russia against her people in Ukraine, the then-20 year old took it to top-ranked women in multiple scenarios last season, including wins against top-ranked Elena Rybakina, Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Danielle Collins, and a victory against world's #8 Maria Sakkari at Wimbledon. She hasn't lost a step in 2024, making the semifinals recently at Indian Wells, where she lost against world's #1, Iga Swiatek. She also made the finals at the San Diego Open before falling short against Katie Boulter, and she took Coco Gauff to her limits in the quarterfinals in Sydney. 

Low to mid-tier opponents haven't stood a chance against Marta, who looks ready to reserve a seat at the top-25 table for years to come. Apparently the WTA agrees; the surging Ukrainian is currently ranked 27th in the world. After a very busy start to 2024, Kostyuk should be well-rested coming into the Stuttgart Open, fresh off a full month vacation. Siegemund is a savvy veteran and she's from Germany, so she'll have the home crowd behind her, but that's about the only advantage she'll experience on Tuesday. Even when her service game is off, Kostyuk's ability to roam the baseline and fight through tough matches has been fascinating to watch, a fierce competitor truly blossoming into a fiery new contender before our eyes. Today's favorite should be heavier chalk, nearing -200 from our vantage point, so we must fire on this wager.

Farley

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