PGA wagers
Volvo China Open
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Posted Wed, April 26 at 4:00 PM EST 

Cutoff time to place bets is WEDNESDAY at 7:00 PM EST at Pinnacle and 5:00 PM EST at Bet365

The Volvo China Open

The second leg of the European Tour’s China swing takes place this week on the back of an excellent tournament at Shenzhen last time out. This is a gorgeous place to play golf. Designed by Ian Woosnam and opened as recently as 2011, it really is a stunning course of beautiful parkland and incredible wildlife, and once the early morning mist lifts, views of the Great Wall of China are available. Measuring 7,261 yards for its Par 72, this stretch features undulating Paspalum greens and plenty of trees and water hazards for players to navigate around.

What a story the 2016 edition of this event was. Held at Topwin for the very first time, the home supporters had a second consecutive winner to cheer home as Haotong Li overcame a two-shot deficit on the Sunday to reel in Felipe Aguilar and Lucas Bjerregaard with a bogey-free 64. He followed compatriot Ashun Wu in taking down his home tournament. It isn’t a top tier European Tour event by any means, but there is enough to whet the appetite for another pulsating four days of action in China.

We can expect a birdie fest if conditions suit. Li won here in -22 a year ago, with 38 players in double digits under par and the cut line at -3! Li played the Par 3s in -1, the Par 4s in -16 and the Par 5s in -5, so doing the simple things well is the key. The European Tour didn’t collect stats from Li’s winning effort, but for second-placed Felipe Aguilar we find that the he ranked 11th for Driving Accuracy (five of the first 11 players home ranked top-20 for this metric), fifth for Greens in Regulation (6/11) and 32nd for Putts per Round (6/11).

So, with all of the above in mind, who are we taking this week? We’ll continue to look for longshots because that’s our game. The favorite, Bernd Wiesberger (10-1) is the man to beat again as long as he doesn’t suffer from the infamous ‘champion effect’ which generally brings previous winners to their knees a week later. We’re more interested in 30-1 shots or better so hopefully some of these will be in the mix on Sunday.

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:

Fabrizio Zanotti +3041 Pinnacle 

Nobody made more birdies than Zanotti at Shenzhen (25), and that propelled him up to T5 in the leaderboard which included a confidence-boosting final round of 64. A winner earlier this year at the Maybank Championship, the Paraguayan showed he can hang in illustrious company by posting a T12 at WGC Mexico a few weeks ago. On debut at Topwin last year, Zanotti finished T9 and that is a very handy marker to improve on this week. While Wiesberger deserves to be the chalk, Zanotti just might have the best chance to win this week and we’re not about to let him go at this price (risking 0.2 units to win 6.82 units),

Head-to-head matchup

#7462 F. Zanotti over JL Smith (Risking 1.06 units to win 1)

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David Lipsky 33-1

Lipsky is a pretty unique player to have on side this week. Of all the players on the European Tour to have played in five or more events in 2017, he leads the way with an eye-popping average of 18.4 birdies per tournament. What that shows is his consistency, with a T5 finish at last week’s Shenzhen following a T2 at the Maybank in his last but one start on the tour too. Factor in a T5 at the Hong Kong Open in October and we realize the extent to which Lipsky loves playing his golf in this part of the world. Should you require any further persuasion, the American finished T9 here 12 months ago with a closing round of 66. (risking 0.2 units to win 6.6 units).

Head-to-head matchup

7470 D. Lipsky -109 over T. Olesen (Risking 1.09 units to win 1)

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Gregory Bourdy 60-1

The Frenchman made 22 birdies and hit a hole-in-one at Shenzhen, so when we talk about confidence, his must be sky high at the moment. Ultimately he would finish one shot short of Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood, but that T3 marks a fantastic return to form for Bourdy. He was T21 here on debut a year ago having entered the tournament with minimal form to his name, and the assumption then is that Topwin is a course that suits his eye. He opened up with an excellent 66 there 12 months ago. Noticeable was how well he putted at Shenzhen last week, ranking 11th for Putts per Round and 19th for Greens in Regulation. In a birdie-fest like we expect this event to be, that bodes very well indeed (risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

#7482 G. Bourdy -106 over L. Bjerregaard (risking 1.06 units to win 1).

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Brett Rumford +6759 Pinnacle 

A former China Open winner (albeit at a different course), Rumford showed his mettle in this part of the world with a T14 at Shenzhen last week, a run which included 20 birdies. The Aussie is a six-time European Tour winner, the latest victory coming as recently as February in the Super 6 tournament in his home nation. Rumford is no stranger to getting past the winning post should the chance emerge. The fact that he ranked first for Putts per Round at Genzon last time out suggests his game is in fine working order at present. (risking 0.2 units to win 13.52 units)

Head-to-head matchup

7490 B, Rumford  -106 over T. Detry (Risking 1.06 units to win 1). 

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Matteo Manassero 80-1 

We always like to throw one bomb in each week and this week it was a straight-up dogfight between Manassero and Haydn Porteous (66-1) and it’s the Italian who just bested the South African based upon his consistency. Manassero has gone five for five of late, with the results being a T3 at the Indian Open and a T20 at the Maybank Championship. He’s still in good form, making 19 birdies at Genzon last week despite a lowly finish of T39. An opening round of 69 at Topwin 12 months ago – which came after he had missed five of his last eight cuts – offers a tantalizing glimpse of his potential. (Risking 0.2 units to win 16). 

Head-to-head matchup

There are no heads up available Manassero. 

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WAGERS LOST

G. Bourdy -106 over L. Bjerregaard (risking 1.06 units to win 1) = -1.06 units

7490 B, Rumford  -106 over T. Detry (Risking 1.06 units to win 1). = -1.06 units

4 golfers to win outright at 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

TOTAL UNITS LOST = 2.92

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WAGERS WON:

F. Zanotti over JL Smith (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) = +1 unit

D. Lipsky -109 over T. Olesen (Risking 1.09 units to win 1) = +1 unit

TOTAL WAGERS WON = 2 units

Therefore: 2.92 units - 2 units = a NET LOSS of -0.92 units.

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Our Pick

Volvo China Open (Risking 5.27 units - To Win: 0.00)