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Posted Wednesday at 3:00 PM EST. 

The Barclay's 

This course has twice been the host of the U.S. Open (2002, 2009) and last was the venue for this event, the Barclays, in 2012. The fact that arguably the toughest major has been played here on multiple occasions proves it is going to be a tough test for the golfers who head out there this week. To give you an idea of how tough this course is, when the U.S. Open was played here in 2002 and 2009, Tiger Woods and Lucas Glover came away with trophies with a score of three-under and four-under, respectively.

The infamous Bethpage State Park (Black Course) is deemed to be one of the toughest tests in golf and will measure in at a long 7,468 yards while playing as a Par 71. Here’s what we know about this track: it’s long, it’s filled with bunkers, and if you miss the fairway, you’re pretty much screwed. The Black Course will require accuracy, consistency, and one heck of a short game.  Getting off the tee and landing safely in these fairways is key to the success of every golfer in the field. Total Driving is a stat we’re focusing in on this week, and of course, Scrambling.

There is a trio of long par 5’s, and five of the par 4’s will measure in at longer than 475 yards.  Black doesn’t have the largest putting surfaces, so tighter ‘approach-to-green’ games work better here.

Here are four golfers we’re going to invest in: Wagers to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their buyout option during the event. Heads up wagers will be placed at Pinnacle:

Kevin Na +70-1

Na may be having the best 2016 season of all players out there without a victory, making 20-of-23 cuts (87%) with eight Top 10’s and four finishes in the Top 3.  He comes into this week on the heels of four consecutive Top 22 performances, with his last two at the John Deere Classic and Wyndham Championship, going for eighth and 10th respectively, combining for a score of 27-under-par.  Na has had no issues with the strong fields, raking in Top 25’s at each of the past three majors, including a seventh on the tough conditions of Oakmont at the U.S. Open in June. The 32-year-old has made up 0.834 strokes on the field when approaching the green (3rd on TOUR) thanks to a 34’1” proximity to hole (31st on TOUR) and the ability to knock it close from the 125-150 yard distance (17’5”, best on TOUR). Na always seems to be in the mix, and is certainly due to add a second career victory very soon (Risking 0.2 units to win 14 units).

Head-to-head matchup

#7032 K. Na +105 over Z. Johnson (Risking 1 unit).

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Emiliano Grillo 80-1

The 23-year-old out of Argentina has had no issues acclimating himself to the life of a PGA TOUR player, and comes into this event in the 32nd spot of the FedExCup standings and 37th in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). He has not lived up to the victory that kicked off the 2016 season, but has continued to be a consistent performer from week to week, and since the win, has gone 17-for-20 (85%) at making it to the weekend with eight Top 25’s. Four of his last five times out have resulted in a Top 15 performance, including a 12th at the Open Championship, 13th at the PGA Championship, and eighth in the Rio Olympics. At such a young age, he already shows the poise of a player who will rack up the trophies throughout his career, and thanks to an accurate driver (67.40%, 18th on TOUR), solid GIR (68.17%, 39th on TOUR), and Proximity To Hole (34’10”, 54th on TOUR), he should be able to continue his recent success here. There is no question that Grillo is ready to pop again so expect to see him on our “win” slate often until he does. At 80-1, don’t miss him (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).   

Head-to-head matchup

#7037 E. Grillo -106 over P. Casey (Risking 1.06 units to win 1 unit).

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Russell Knox +66-1

Knox sat out the Wyndham last week after he triumphed to victory at the Travelers the week before. This guy is super accurate off the tee (11th in Driving Accuracy on TOUR, 8th in the field). He also sits pretty at 2nd in GIR and T13 in proximity.  It looks as if his game is locked in right now, and he strolls into Bethpage with four consecutive Top 30 finishes, including two Top 10’s. Knox has a legitimate chance of winning the FedExCup trophy coming in as the 4th in points. A price tag like this on a player like Knox is a no-brainer and a big overlay (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).

Head-to-head matchup

#7030 R. Knox -124 over C. Scwartzel (Risking 1.24 units to win 1 unit).

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Kevin Kisner 100-1

Kisner comes into N.Y. quietly in 11th place on the FedExCup leaderboard with a pretty solid record over the last few weeks. In his last five starts, Kisner notched four Top 26 finishes, including three in the Top 18. In that span, he’s made 17 cuts in 22 events total on the season. Kisner ranks 9th on TOUR (7th in field) in Strokes Gained: Putting and 23rd in Birdie Average. A high-oods long-ball hitter with very nice accuracy is what you get when you back Kisner this week. That’s not a bad place tpo start with a 100-1 shot (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units).

Head-to-head matchup

#7041 K. Kisner +102 over J. Thomas (Risking 1 unit).

RESULTS

winning wagers:

#7037 E. Grillo -106 over P. Casey = 1 unit

Losing wagers:

K. Na +105 over Z. Johnson = -1 unit

R. Knox -124 over C. Scwartzel =-1.24 units

K. Kisner +102 over J. Thomas (Risking 1 unit) = -1 unit

4 golfers to win at 0.2 uunits each = 0.8 units

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Therefore -4.04 + 1 units = -3.04 units for this event. 

NOTE: We will update this event once it is final. To view previous event results, click on Golf, then Picks history and then click on the DATE of the event. Total risk for this event is 5.1 units 

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