BEST LINES: Bet365 +10 -105 SportsInteraction +10 -110 Pinnacle +10 -110 Betfair +11½ -125 

Posted at 9:30 PM EST. 

Regular readers of this site know our position on paying a premium to wager on a specific team and it’s never been more evident than this week. To say the Tigercats are rolling would be an understatement. Hamilton has reeled off five in a row by scores of 31-21, 34-18, 38-8, 52-22 and 49-20. Last week’s beat-down over the Eskimos in what many called a Grey Cup preview, capped it all off. Over those five games, Hamilton has outscored the opposition by an incredible count of 204-89 and that’s not a typo. You are not only going to pay a premium to back the ‘Cats in this spot, you’re going to pay a huge premium to back them. That’s something we can’t get on board with.

Without taking anything away from Hamilton and at the risk of sounding a little redundant, the ‘Cats domination is not as clear cut as it may appear on paper. Truth is, Hamilton has capitalized on a slew of early turnovers to put the opposition in a giant early hole of which none of them have been able to recover. Last week, the Eskies turned it over five times and were down 20-3 early because of it. The week prior, B.C. turned it over four times and it was down 24-0 early as a result. Three weeks ago, it was Winnipeg’s turn, as the Bombers found themselves in a 27-0 early hole after two turnovers a blocked punt and an onside kick. Over the past four games, Hamilton has a 14-2 turnover battle and that doesn’t include the blocked punt for a TD or the three times they stopped the Argonauts on third and one. Throw those in and it’s 18-2. Some will argue that in order to get a turnover, you have to create them. To that we say, “Hogwash”. That argument is completely ludicrous because turnovers are a result of a bad pass or the ball carrier being careless. For further proof, all you have to do is look up turnovers in the NFL or CFL over the past 50 years. Every year it’s a crapshoot. It’s like putting all 30 NFL teams in a hat and drawing them out one at a time. Every year the list of leaders is completely different from the previous year. There is no consistency whatsoever. Certain teams are among the leaders in run yards, pass yards or defense every season on a consistent basis. No team, ever, has consistently been among the leaders in the turnover department or takeaway department. Ever.

Don’t get us wrong. Hamilton is a great team and perhaps the best in the league among a slew of flawed teams in the CFL. They have nothing but talent and they always seem to be in great field position. However, they are not so powerful to be blowing away teams by 30 points every week. It’s so rare to blow out teams in back-to-back weeks, let alone in four consecutive weeks. If the Alouettes just come in here, hold onto the ball and play a clean, smart game, they not only have a great chance to cover, they’ll have a chance to win. Regardless of what happens on the field, we’re positive we’re going with the best of it here by taking back some inflated points. This is actually a pretty fair fight.   

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