Sep 16, 2014 13:48:22
Nitpicking here but I'm a Royals fan! KC won last night in the opener not the Whitesox as you claim! Go Royals!....mind you, I agree that Hendricks could get shelled!
Thanks Scott my bad, thought I saw 3-2 final Chicago and I did but that was an eighth inning score.
Sep 15, 2014 11:27:46
I'm not sure I agree with one reader saying the first two weeks are hardest. I find the opposite to be true. Oddly perhaps, I've tended to do best in weeks 2-3 and the last few weeks of the season. Vegas gets sharper after a few weeks but by the season's final weeks, the best teams are often executing better and burying who they should with (MANY) exceptions of course, which can help betters who favour higher scoring favorites.
Almost everybody has different theories/angles regarding the NFL Magus and if it works for you, stick to it. One thing I know for sure is that many games are decided by pure luck and NOBODY can correctly predict the outcome or things that happen in a game no matter what you believe. My friend Randall the Handle writes a column in the Sun everyday and had this to say about the Giants game:
"Itís Victor Cruzís fault. Yes, the final score read 25-14 in Arizonaís victory over the Giants. Many bettors had the Giants taking points before it was announced that Arizona QB Carson Palmer would not play. However, those on the G-men saw the whole thing come apart on one dropped pass. So with Giants winning 14-13 in the 4th quarter and facing a 3rd and 6 from their side of center, usually reliable WR Victor Cruz dropped a pass that Eli Manning placed in a near perfect spot. Cruz dropped it. The Giants punted. Returner Ted Ginn Jr. was hit hard, forcing him back a few yards but then escaping and taking it to the house. Victor Cruzís fault. Ensuing kickoff, the bungling New Yorkers fumbled, leading to a Cardinalsí field goal. Itís now 22-14. Victor Cruzís fault. Despite all the ugly events, the door is still open for the Giants to get a late touchdown to possibly tie the game up or lose by two. The Giants make it all the way down to Arizonaís 13-yard line before RB Rashad Jennings is running in open field until he slips and has the ball stripped from him by that ferocious opponent known as the ground. And that was that. All Victor Cruzís fault".
This is just one example of a game that could have gone either way and there are so many just like it every week, where the game turns on one play, one dropped pass, one botched call by the refs, one fumble, one phantom call, etc, etc, etc. It's for that reason, I don't try and predict the outcome. I look for value, overreactions and under-reactions and let the chips fall where they may. Best of luck friend and thanks for writing.
Sep 15, 2014 09:40:05
Had a good NFL run in Week 2, went 6-3-1
Took your picks: BAL, DAL, WAS, NYG, SEA
Made some picks of my own: BUF Moneyline +102, GB -7, SF -7
I can say I only disagreed with one pick and that was SF. I thought the 49ers would come out flying in their new stadium and torch the Bears. Well they did take a 17-0 lead, and then cue the collapse. I had to turn the game off after the back to back interceptions. Ah well, I was on the right side of a collapse last week with Cleveland.
One thing I have noticed though, and I would think you do as well is, spotting anything -7 or higher whether home team or road is a rarity. The league is filled with such parity, and collapses are frequent. Anyway thanks for your great picks once again, and I should have taken your Chicago pick.
Sherwood 1 Chris 0
I picked BUF moneyline at +102, GB at -7, and SF -7 +106,
Very true about those big lines. They never seem to cover but sometimes it's so hard to pull trigger on the dog. I honestly thought KC would get buried yesterday but they nearly won outright. Anyway, glad you picked up a few winners yesterday and let's hope it continues. The NFL can bring one back down to Earth real quick.
Best of luck Chris.