Nov 28, 2015 17:52:46
Sherwood... Youre an idiot... bahhhh Just kidding. Thanks for the back to back anti Rangers bets yesterday and today. I played Philly yesterday as well and hit... They seem to hold a tonne of value at this point in the season, especially since they have started to limit the GA in the past couple of weeks.
I love the fade views on your NHL picks, they have helped me out a lot over the past season and a half. Keep up the great work, and please don't get discouraged by all of the mail you get regarding your knowledge on sportswagers.
...just maybe tidy up some of the language on twitter and lay of the zebras... They are what they are, and they always have been that way.
Thanks again my friend!
Thanks Dingle, appreciate the feedback and I will lay off the twitter comments because you are right on the money with your assessment. It is what it is and always will be. Thanks for writing.
Nov 28, 2015 09:59:31
The Canes were the right side last night, but once again inept play in the crease cost us our ticket. More frustrating was being against Buffalo immediately on the heels of backing them for consecutive losses. I find that when I switch after backing a side for multiple losses, that is usually when they find a way to win.
When Carolina loses it does not surprise me. They are always a risk because their goaltending is so bad. That said, they are a solid team that will continue to haver value when offered a price and therefore I will continue to play them.
Nov 26, 2015 09:35:04
Sherwood : Let me guess that 80 + % of your bets would be single bets & very few parlays & if a parlay a 2 teamer: to me that would be the best way to look & bet for Value: Looking forward to your return : Many thanks for your effort: Great night last night aye! Your Silent Follower: Mr. B.
Mr. W. Baxter
You are right Mr. B in that 80% + of my wagers are flat bets. However, a two-team, three-team or any number of teams parlay all have great value as long as they are money line parlays. For instance, a two-team parlay using the point-spread has no value and you can expect to lose money by playing them over time. The same holds true for any point-spread parlays whether it's 2, 3, 4 or 6 team parlays. However, a money-line parlay, no matter how many teams you use, offers up the true value of hitting it and if you are playing undervalued teams, that parlay will actually be paying more than it should be. In general, each wager has a 50% or ½ probability of winning. If we are trying to determine the probability of hitting a parlay using the point-spread, we just multiply ½ by the number of bets we are making. The probability of hitting a two team parlay is ½ by ½ = ¼. We will win one parlay out of four. Another way to express this is to say that the fair odds are 3-1. A normal payout for a two team parlay is 13-5. Here is how the house edge is calculated: Expectation = [1/4 x (+13)] + [3/4 x (-5)]= -2/4= -0.5. Therefore the house edge is 10%. That’s something that will cost you money over the long haul. The more teams you bet in a parlay, the bigger the house edge gets. However, a two-team parlay using money line underdogs pays out the true odds plus…..Take two teams at +120 for instance for let’s say $50. You win the first game and it pays $60, add the $50 original bet and therefore you would have 60 +50 = a $110 bet onto team #2 at +120. That wins and pays $132.00. Therefore 132 +110 = 242.00 would be the payout for your 2-team parlay minus the $50 original wager. 242-50 =192. Your two team money line parlay would profit $192.00. If you lose 3 of them and win 1, you will therefore show a profit of 42.00 whereas on a point-spread parlay you would show a net loss with the same results. The point is Mr. B, never bet point-spread parlays and always bet money line parlays. In answering your question, I bet two and three game parlays frequently but they are always on money line games.
Not sure if this makes any sense but it doesn't have to. Please trust me when I say to NEVER bet point-spread parlays and always bet MONEY line Parlays on underdogs. Thanks as always Mr. B.